Characterizing Patterns of Drought Synchronicity in the Contiguous United States

Abstract Drought synchronicity, defined as the co‐occurrence of droughts across multiple regions within a specified temporal window, poses significant risks to agriculture, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Here, we investigate the regional and temporal dynamics of drought synchronicity across the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 1980 to 2021, using a suite of data analysis techniques. First, wavelet analysis reveals that since the early 2000s, the spatial extent of drought events across CONUS has become increasingly influenced by low‐frequency oscillations. Second, we apply Event Coincidence Analysis (ECA) to quantify drought synchronicity between regions. Our findings indicate that the Great Plains and Midwest generally experience higher drought synchronicity than other regions. Moreover, short‐term (3‐month) droughts tend to be more synchronous than long‐term (12‐month) droughts, highlighting the growing importance of flash droughts. Because droughts can result from precipitation deficits, increased evapotranspiration, or a combination of both, we further examine the role of these factors. Our results indicate that including potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the drought definition enhances synchronicity in the Midwest and Great Plains but suppresses it in Western United States. Finally, using explainable artificial intelligence (AI) methods, we show that large‐scale climate variability—such as the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM)—contributes to drought synchronicity across CONUS. Overall, our findings indicate that synchronicity is an important and often overlooked dimension of drought risk, with significant implications for ecosystem stability and agricultural resilience.