Macroeconomic Impact of Accelerating Public Infrastructure Investments in Morocco

This paper studies Morocco’s public infrastructure investment scale-up in 2024–2030, amounting to around 12 percent of 2024 GDP. Empirical evidence shows that improvements in infrastructure quantity and quality have contributed importantly to Morocco’s productivity growth in recent decades. Model simulations suggest that the planned investment increase would raise productivity and long-run real GDP, though gains are dampened by high import leakages and crowding out of private investment. Higher investment efficiency raise growth without increasing debt, while cost overruns worsen debt dynamics without additional output gains. The analysis highlights the importance of efficient public investment management and careful fiscal risk management.