Regional assessment of typhoon wind, wave, and current multi-hazards for offshore structure design using SWAN + ADCIRC: Sensitivity to reanalysis wind forcings and extreme value distributions

This study develops a comprehensive framework for regional assessments of typhoon-induced wind, wave, and current multi-hazards required for offshore structure design using SWAN+ADCIRC coupled numerical models. A primary focus is on sensitivity analysis of estimated high-quantile extremes to the reanalysis wind forcing datasets and extreme value distributions, which remain underexplored. Results reveal that the choice of reanalysis dataset has a limited impact on design-level extremes. However, the selection of extreme value models significantly affects estimated hazards. Generally, the obtained hazard maps for 50-year return period values using the generalized extreme value distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, and optimal distribution (based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov criterion) are comparable, with uncertainties within 10%, whereas Gumbel distribution results in a larger deviation of up to 20%. Spatial analysis shows that the current extremes exhibit greater spatial variability due to localized seabed topography effects. Additionally, a logistic model-based multivariate extreme value distribution is proposed for modelling typhoon wind, wave, and current tri-variates, demonstrating that the obtained environmental contours are highly site-dependent and vary significantly due to the use of different marginal distributions. These findings provide valuable insights for robustly and reliably assessing the design-level hazards and the characterization and modelling of regional typhoon multi-hazards for offshore structure design. • Developed and verified a framework for assessing regional typhoon multi-hazards based on the ADCIRC+ SWAN coupled numerical models • Revealed the limited sensitivity of using different reanalysis wind forcing datasets on the estimated typhoon hazards • Showed the crucial impact of different extreme value distributions on the estimated typhoon hazards • Showed the moderate-to-high correlation strengths among typhoon wind-wave-current extremes • Provided (joint) typhoon wind, wave, and current hazard maps for the Pearl River Delta offshore region

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Publication Details

Journal
Weather and Climate Extremes
Published
2026-04-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100899
Primary Topic
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Regional assessment of typhoon wind, wave, and current multi-hazards for offshore structure design using SWAN + ADCIRC: Sensitivity to reanalysis wind forcings and extreme value distributions

Chao Sheng, Yang Zhang, K.S. Dai, H. Cheng
Weather and Climate Extremes
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
article

Regional assessment of typhoon wind, wave, and current multi-hazards for offshore structure design using SWAN + ADCIRC: Sensitivity to reanalysis wind forcings and extreme value distributions

Chao Sheng, Yang Zhang, K.S. Dai, H. Cheng
article en

Abstract

This study develops a comprehensive framework for regional assessments of typhoon-induced wind, wave, and current multi-hazards required for offshore structure design using SWAN+ADCIRC coupled numerical models. A primary focus is on sensitivity analysis of estimated high-quantile extremes to the reanalysis wind forcing datasets and extreme value distributions, which remain underexplored. Results reveal that the choice of reanalysis dataset has a limited impact on design-level extremes. However, the selection of extreme value models significantly affects estimated hazards. Generally, the obtained hazard maps for 50-year return period values using the generalized extreme value distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, and optimal distribution (based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov criterion) are comparable, with uncertainties within 10%, whereas Gumbel distribution results in a larger deviation of up to 20%. Spatial analysis shows that the current extremes exhibit greater spatial variability due to localized seabed topography effects. Additionally, a logistic model-based multivariate extreme value distribution is proposed for modelling typhoon wind, wave, and current tri-variates, demonstrating that the obtained environmental contours are highly site-dependent and vary significantly due to the use of different marginal distributions. These findings provide valuable insights for robustly and reliably assessing the design-level hazards and the characterization and modelling of regional typhoon multi-hazards for offshore structure design. • Developed and verified a framework for assessing regional typhoon multi-hazards based on the ADCIRC+ SWAN coupled numerical models • Revealed the limited sensitivity of using different reanalysis wind forcing datasets on the estimated typhoon hazards • Showed the crucial impact of different extreme value distributions on the estimated typhoon hazards • Showed the moderate-to-high correlation strengths among typhoon wind-wave-current extremes • Provided (joint) typhoon wind, wave, and current hazard maps for the Pearl River Delta offshore region

Weather and Climate ExtremesVol. 52
Sichuan University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Department of Science and Technology of Sichuan Province, National University's Basic Research Foundation of China
Openalex Percentile: Top 23%
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
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