The development of a framework to assess the sectoral penetration of small modular nuclear reactors in electrolysis-based ammonia production

Electrolytic hydrogen can help decarbonize emissions-intensive sectors, such as ammonia production, where electrification is challenging. However, there is limited information on penetration pathways for small modular nuclear reactor-based electrolytic ammonia (SMNRPP-NH 3 ). This study introduces a framework for modelling the adoption of SMNRPP-NH 3 systems and evaluates its potential to displace conventional ammonia. A case study of Alberta, Canada, showed that with a carbon price of $170/tCO 2 , SMNRPP-NH 3 systems can meet 75% of the regional ammonia demand by 2050 at a levelized cost of $420/tNH 3 , which is 16% lower than natural gas-based ammonia. High technology learning rates, capital cost reductions, and accelerated deployment had more significant effects on the penetration than the GHG footprint of the conventional ammonia. The study findings can inform policy formulation and long-term investment planning to support the integration of electrolysis in the ammonia production sector. The developed framework can also be replicated globally with appropriate adjustments to the data. • Assessed the adoption of small modular nuclear-based electrolytic ammonia (SMNRPP-NH 3 ). • Compared the SMNRPP-NH 3 systems' adoption paths under varied growth scenarios. • SMNRPP-NH 3 systems can meet 75% of Alberta's ammonia demand by 2050 at $420/tNH 3. • Up to 90% of Alberta's ammonia demand can be met with 3.4 GW of SMNRPP capacity.