Using models and remote sensing to support a warning system: diagnosing climate and land use changes in Nahouri, Burkina Faso

Purpose The study aims to diagnose climate and land use changes in Nahouri province (Burkina Faso) over the past 40 years. It seeks to explore the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic changes on local livelihoods and identify trends in climate variables, water availability variables land cover and aerosol concentrations, to inform climate change mitigation strategies and support a warning system. Design/methodology/approach The study uses multiple models and remote-sensing data sources, including TerraClimate, Landsat images and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Aerosol Optical Dust (MODIS-AOD) data over the past 40 years. The analysis was conducted across three seasonal periods: dry season (October to March), transition season (April and May) and wet season (June to September). Findings The results indicate a general warming trend, with more acute changes during the transition season, characterized by increased temperatures and decreased precipitation. Land cover and vegetation data show an overall increase in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), likely related to land use changes in a landscape dominated by agro-forested areas and the shift from grassy to shrub savannas. In addition, MODIS-AOD data revealed higher aerosol concentrations in urbanized areas with an increase in the last 20 years, mostly during the transition seasons. Originality/value The findings confirm local observations of prolonged dry seasons and emphasize the importance of region-specific studies to guide conservation efforts and inform the development of tools to mitigate climate change.