From secondary special needs education to the labor market: latent trajectories and inequalities in employment participation

OBJECTIVES: Individuals with disabilities continue to face barriers to labor market inclusion. The transition from secondary special needs education plays a critical role in shaping long-term employment outcomes. Early labor market disparities are particularly concerning given their lasting impact on health and well-being. This study aims to: (i) assess employment participation after leaving special needs education, (ii) identify distinct employment trajectories, and (iii) examine how gender and migration background are associated with these trajectories. METHODS: This longitudinal study used national registry data from Statistics Netherlands to examine employment outcomes among individuals transitioning from secondary education between 2016 and 2023, with focus on those in special needs education. Employment status was available monthly for up to seven years post-transition. Group-based trajectory modeling was applied separately for each educational track within secondary special needs education to identify patterns of labor market participation over time. Gender and migration background were subsequently examined as predictors of trajectory group membership using multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: Employment participation after seven years was substantially lower among former special needs education students (10-53% across tracks) than among those from regular 'practice-based' education (70%). After special needs education, employment participation was initially highest among individuals transitioning from the 'labor market integration' track, but plateaued around 45%. In contrast, graduates from the 'post-secondary education' track, primarily aimed at continued studies, showed steady improvement, leading to better long-term employment outcomes (53%). Within each educational track, 3-5 distinct latent employment trajectories were identified. Post-hoc analyses indicated that women and individuals with a migration background were consistently more likely to follow less favorable patterns. CONCLUSION: Educational pathways alone do fully not account for labor market disparities. Outcomes are shaped by the intersection of education and identity characteristics. These findings highlight the need for individualized vocational support and deliberate, equity-focused guidance during educational transitions.