Analysis of the effects and mechanisms of carbon emission trading policies on the risk-taking behavior of high-carbon enterprises

The carbon emissions trading scheme serves as a core mechanism in China’s climate policy, playing a crucial role in advancing the nation’s dual carbon goals. Examining the impact of this strategy on risk-taking behavior in high-carbon enterprises and its underlying mechanisms has substantial theoretical and practical significance for attaining integrated environmental and economic development. This research utilizes a difference-in-differences methodology to analyze the effect of policy on risk-taking behavior in high-carbon organizations by matching panel data from publicly listed enterprises in China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets from 2008 to 2024. Research indicates that carbon emissions trading policy substantially diminishes risk-taking behaviors in high-carbon enterprises. Heterogeneous tests reveal that the most significant suppression effects are observed in low-competition enterprises, state-owned enterprises, over-invested enterprises, declining enterprises, and enterprises located in western and eastern areas, whereas high-carbon enterprises in the central region have a promotion impact. Mechanism analysis indicates that the policy exacerbates suppression by limiting management risk appetites and reinforcing finance constraints . These findings provide empirical evidence regarding market-based incentive mechanisms for emissions reduction in China. By assessing the influence of carbon emissions trading policy on risk-taking behaviors in high-carbon enterprises, they establish a foundation for the transformation and advancement of these enterprises.