Climate-Driven Distribution of Edible Fungi in Central Mexico: Implications for Forest Sustainability

Climate change is reshaping climatic regimes worldwide, with direct consequences for species distributions and ecosystem services, including those provided by wild edible fungi. In Mexico, these fungi represent a resource of ecological, cultural, and economic importance, yet their vulnerability to future climate scenarios remains poorly understood. This study evaluated projected changes in the potential distributions of ten frequently consumed edible fungal species in central Mexico under current and future climate scenarios (2061–2080 and 2081–2100). Ecological niche models were performed using Maxent with 19 bioclimatic variables, spatial block cross-validation, and model tuning based on the AICc and partial ROC curves. Additionally, associations between species suitability and land use and vegetation variables were assessed through multivariate analyses. The most influential predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (71.929%), temperature seasonality (47.589%), and annual precipitation (41.962%). Current models identify high environmental suitability primarily within the TMVB, Sierra Madre Occidental, and southern mountainous regions such as Chiapas. Future projections revealed heterogeneous, species-specific responses. Suitability gains were projected for Cantharellus cibarius (21–50%), Infundibulicybe gibba (20–34%), Lactarius deliciosus (13–48%), and Lyophyllum decastes (8–141%), whereas Helvella crispa (1–99%), Agaricus campestris (2–88%), and Russula brevipes (74–100%) showed marked contractions under high-emission scenarios. These contrasting patterns suggest that climate change may restructure the spatial availability of edible fungi in Mexico, potentially affecting forest sustainability and the biocultural practices of communities that depend on these resources. Integrating species-specific climatic sensitivity into conservation and sustainable management strategies will be essential under future climate conditions.