Digital Talent Flow and Economic Growth in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area: The Spatial Mediation Effect of Industrial Restructuring

This study examines the impact of digital talent flow on economic growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) using the spatial Durbin model and spatial mediation model. Based on panel data analysis from 2003 to 2022, our findings show that first, economic activities cluster in high-growth cities, including Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Second, digital talent flow significantly enhances economic growth and generates positive spatial spillovers through knowledge and technology diffusion. Third, industrial structure upgrading positively mediates this relationship. However, its spatial mediation negatively affects surrounding cities by causing a talent drain. As a policy implication, this study advocates for coordinated industrial restructuring and targeted talent policies to achieve balanced regional development.