Latent classes of substance use precursors predict positive alcohol and cannabis expectancies one year later in Black and Latino early adolescents in the ABCD study

INTRODUCTION: Precursors of alcohol and cannabis use, such as friend (dis)approval, have rarely been examined in person-centered analyses that can inform tailored prevention, particularly among Black and Latino youth. This study aimed to identify person-centered patterns (classes) of precursors of alcohol and cannabis use in Black and Latino youth, examine correlates across classes, and determine whether the classes predicted positive anticipated effects (expectancies) of alcohol and cannabis one year later. METHODS: Latent class analyses used data from Black and Latino pre-adolescents in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study Follow-up Year 2 (n = 3,003; 31.0% Black, 69.0% Latino; mean age: 12.0, SE = 0.0). The 3-step method examined correlates of the classes (e.g., parental monitoring, cultural values) and used class membership to predict positive expectancies at Follow-up Year 3. RESULTS: Three latent classes emerged: low risk (High friend disapproval/ moderate-high perceived risk of harm: 46.7%), high risk (Low friend disapproval/low perceived risk of harm: 10.5%), and a class characterized by protective (high friend disapproval) and risk-elevating (low perceived risk of harm) precursors (divergent class; 42.8%). The high (vs low) risk class reported greater externalizing behavior. The low risk (vs divergent) class was higher on an indicator of familism. Low risk (vs divergent) class membership predicted lower positive expectancies across substances, but low (vs high) risk class membership did not significantly predict expectancies. CONCLUSION: Findings underscore heterogeneity in the co-occurrence of precursors to alcohol and cannabis use among pre-adolescent Black and Latino youth and the relevance of distinct patterns of precursors in predicting positive expectancies.