Conflict, Displacement, and Educational Disruption: A Systems Analysis of South Sudan, 2016–2026

Protracted conflict and large-scale displacement have created a protracted crisis for education systems in several African states. The case of South Sudan represents an extreme example, where systemic collapse has severely constrained access to formal schooling for a generation of learners. This working paper analyses how conflict and displacement have structurally disrupted educational access. It aims to map the key systemic barriers, identify interdependencies within the education system, and model the compounding effects of these disruptions over a decade. The study employs a systems analysis framework, synthesising data from government reports, humanitarian agency assessments, and grey literature. It constructs a causal loop diagram to visualise the reinforcing dynamics between conflict, displacement, infrastructure loss, teacher attrition, and enrolment decline. Analysis reveals a vicious cycle where displacement directly reduces enrolment, which in turn leads to school closures and teacher flight, further degrading system capacity. A critical finding is that over half of all functional learning spaces were estimated to be temporary structures in displacement camps, highlighting system fragility. Gender disparities in access were markedly exacerbated in conflict-affected regions. Educational disruption in this context is not a temporary outcome but a deeply embedded systemic condition. The erosion of core system components creates feedback loops that perpetuate exclusion and make recovery increasingly difficult over time. Policy and programming must shift from short-term humanitarian response to integrated, system-strengthening approaches. Priorities include investing in teacher retention and recruitment within displaced communities, formalising alternative education pathways, and developing context-specific data systems to monitor system resilience. education in emergencies, systems analysis, access to education, forced displacement, fragile states, educational policy This paper provides a novel application of systems analysis to model the compounding, long-term effects of conflict on educational access, offering a diagnostic tool for policymakers beyond conventional situational analysis.