Managing the Sundhnúkagígar–Grindavík volcanic emergency in Iceland, 2023–2026

After eight centuries of relative quiet, a cycle of episodic volcanic activity began on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula in 2021. In late 2023, the eruption sequence began threatening the Blue Lagoon tourist center, Svartsengi geothermal power plant, and the town of Grindavík. Grindavík’s 3790 residents were evacuated on Nov. 10–11, 2023, and most remain displaced more than 28 months later. Damage to date has resulted from surface deformation, fissuring, and lava flows, but has been limited. Most damage was prevented by construction of lava barriers that today stretch 14 km long and reach up to 25 m high. The most sweeping response to this disaster has been the social safety net provided for the displaced residents of Grindavík, including the buyout of over 950 residences (> 90%) in the town by Þórkatla, a government-chartered corporation. Safeguarding the town and caring for residents have been Iceland’s spotlight political challenge for the past >2 years. Þórkatla’s buyouts in Grindavík began as a short-term humanitarian program, but the long duration of this volcanic sequence and the continued uncertainty are growing challenges to the original vision. Iceland’s investment in this disaster currently exceeds $1.0 billion US dollars, or about 2.6% of its annual GDP. This total, proportional to Iceland’s size, is larger than most other world disasters. The adage that “Civilization exists by geological consent” is nowhere truer than in Iceland, and Grindavík residents and Icelandic leaders find themselves balancing the short time scale of human impacts with long-term geological hazards.