Assessing the impacts of spatial constraints on the techno-economic potential of offshore wind energy: A case study of the Caribbean Sea, Colombia

Offshore wind resources may be affected by multiple constraints, including technical, environmental and socio-economic factors. The available area for wind energy development can be significantly reduced if these constraints are treated as strict exclusion zones, affecting the potential energy output, the feasibility of project development and in some cases increasing the cost of deployment. This study introduces a framework to evaluate the impact of spatial constraints on the techno-economic potential of offshore wind energy. It demonstrates its application through a case study of the Caribbean Sea in Colombia, a tropical region that unlike most tropical areas, is exceptionally windy and offers promising offshore wind opportunities. We formulated three scenarios with different levels of spatial restrictions and potential offshore activity co-existence, and estimated available area, technical potential, and deployment costs per scenario. Annual energy production maps were generated using wind speeds from ERA5 reanalysis data and a 15 MW IEA reference wind turbine. We also estimated a spatially explicit levelised cost of energy (LCOE) per scenario, considering water depth and distance to shore as key variables. The results show that up to 105 TWh/year could be generated at an LCOE below $100/MWh, exceeding 88% of Colombia's projected electricity demand by 2039. However, constraints reduce the viable areas for development, leading to a 46% decline in energy generation potential between the least and most space-restrictive scenarios. This framework provides a replicable blueprint for guiding offshore wind assessments in emerging economies, where customised studies are essential for policy decisions, marine spatial planning and infrastructure investment.