Spatiotemporal dynamics and mitigation potential of carbon emissions of tomato production systems in China

China’s vegetable production system plays an important role in global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Tomatoes are a representative vegetable, and China is both the largest producer and exporter of tomatoes. Currently, there is little research on carbon emissions (CES) of tomato production system in China, and its migration pathways and mitigation potential remain unclear. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the CES of tomato production systems—from comparing open-field and facility-grown cultivation in China—through an integrated framework combining life cycle assessment (LCA), spatial autocorrelation modeling, centroid migration analysis, and geodetector model. Between 2011 and 2021, the average CES of tomato in facility-grown (6525 ×103 t CO2-eq) were 1-fold higher than those of open-field; the centers of gravity of CES were both consistently located within the North China, migrating 199.9 km and 230.8 km to the southwest, respectively. Compared with open-field system, the impact of yield and mechanization levels on facility-grown tomato has gradually increased over the past decade. The carbon footprint (CF) of facility-grown tomato (13879 kgCO2-eq·ha⁻¹) was 2.1 times higher than that of open-field, and both two systems exhibited a higher carbon footprint in the NWR region. Both production systems have a 30% reduction potential, but the major reduction drivers are different. Optimizing cultivation methods is the dominant reduction key for open-field tomato by 22.0%, while facility-grown reduced by 15.9% through optimizing the energy structure. The results systematically evaluated the CES and CF of tomato systems, revealing the migration pathways of CES and the mitigation potential roadmap for different tomato production systems in China. It significantly improved and advanced the understanding of the CES in tomato production systems, providing policymakers with system-specific insights for targeted carbon mitigation strategies.