Demographic-specific demand and station attractiveness along the Tokaido Shinkansen, Japan

Japan’s persistently low birth rate has heightened the importance of fostering environments that appeal to families, particularly in underutilized regions. Railway stations have become catalysts for regional development and sustainability, with the Tokaido Shinkansen serving as a vital economic artery. However, the benefits from this high-speed rail line are unevenly distributed, exacerbating urban-rural disparities and hindering sustainable growth. This study focuses on working-age households within the economically active 21-50 age group, whose mobility and diverse needs are essential for enhancing station area attractiveness and activity. By integrating Pseudo People Flow data with Point of Interests data, this research dynamically analyzes visitation patterns and demographic-specific preferences. A gravity model reveals that for the 21-50 age group, POI diversity and quality matter more than distance. In contrast, for younger and older groups prioritize proximity and population density and station usage remain critical factors. Tailored optimization strategies for POI distributions at five underutilized stations highlight the potential to increase visitation by up to 1.5 times. The study highlights a scalable, data-driven framework to address regional disparities and inform family supportive amenity planning.