Föhn-induced melting over Larsen C modulated by atmospheric river shape, direction and landfall location

Abstract Recent decades have seen record-high temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) due to combined atmospheric rivers (ARs) and föhn warming. While ARs frequently enhance föhn, not all events cause surface warming over the entire Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS). Using high-resolution Polar WRF simulations, we examine the relationship between ARs and föhn over the AP during austral summers and identify four distinct AR shapes associated with föhn-induced surface warming over the LCIS: zonal-perpendicular, zonal-like, convex, and concave. Zonal-like ARs associated with coupled low-high-pressure systems and convex ARs linked to blocking highs produce strong föhn warming across the entire LCIS, primarily affecting its northern and southern sectors, respectively. In contrast, zonal-perpendicular and concave ARs generate moderate-to-weak warming, owing to either weaker AR intensity or AR curvature. Although downward shortwave radiation dominates surface warming, enhanced moisture suppresses its increase from föhn-induced cloud clearance while enhancing downward longwave radiation near mountain gaps. Sensible heat flux also contributes substantially along the mountain foothills. As ARs intensify under climate change, their interaction with föhn over the AP can critically influence the future stability of coastal ice shelves.