Projecting hurricane risk in Atlantic Canada under climate change

Atlantic Canada faces significant tropical cyclone (TC) threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood hazards is quantified from a historical baseline (1979–2014) to two future periods: a near future (2024–2059) and a far future (2060–2095). Hazard fields are constructed from large ensembles of physics-informed synthetic TC tracks, and changes are evaluated in return-period wind speeds and in inundation depth and extent, with sea-level rise included for flood projections. The second stage estimates TC risk using wind as an operational proxy for total loss, combining the simulated wind fields with exposure data and a vulnerability relationship to compute expected damages. This design clarifies how physical drivers change and how those shifts translate into loss potential without requiring fully coupled compound-loss modeling. Results indicate an intensification of wind extremes and a substantial amplification of coastal inundation, yielding higher wind-proxy risk for many coastal communities. Spatial patterns show a heterogeneous escalation of risk concentrated along exposed shorelines and urban corridors. This comprehensive analysis of both hazard evolution and proxy risk provides decision-ready evidence on where and by how much TC losses are likely to grow. The approach clarifies the link between physical drivers and loss potential, ensuring compatibility with standard wind-centric workflows used in engineering and insurance practice.