Anchor–Stress–Adaptation Theory: Empirical Validation Protocol + Four-Case Results (ASA V0.2.1–V0.5, Iceland)

All cases observed so far fall within the anchor-dominant regime (stable conditions). No transition into the critical zone (−0.2 < M ≤ 0) is observed. Critical-regime validation is pending. This record presents the ASA V0.2.1 Methods Core (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19396794) and first-pass empirical results across four Icelandic cases (Eyjafjallajökull 2010, Grímsvötn 2011, Reykjanes 2023–2024, financial crisis 2008–09). All runs follow the same protocol and use the Ablation A specification (R without Rinfra). Results are provisional and require independent validation.