Anchor-Stress-Adaptation Theory: Empirical Validation Protocol + Three-Case Results (ASA V0.2.1 / V0.3 / V0.4)

This record presents the ASA V0.2.1 Methods Core, a pre-empirical, falsifiable research protocol for testing Anchor–Stress–Adaptation Theory in coupled natural–social systems. The protocol operationalizes Stress (S), Anchor (A), Response Proxy (R), and the Correctability Margin, M=R−(S−A)M = R - (S - A)M=R−(S−A), and specifies fallback data logic, event-window testing, minimum acceptance criteria, and post-run diagnostic gates. The present version is methodological in scope and contains no empirical findings. Its purpose is to define a transparent operational protocol that can be supported, refined, or falsified through subsequent empirical testing. Version 0.3 adds the first-pass empirical results document (Eyjafjallajökull 2010, stable-regime case). The methods core (V0.2.1) is unchanged. Results are provisional and require independent validation. Version 0.4 adds two further first-pass runs — Grímsvötn 2011 and Reykjanes 2023–2024 — alongside a three-case comparison figure, individual run scripts (Python), and a dataset documentation file. All runs use the Ablation A specification (R without Rinfra). The three cases collectively constitute a stable-regime demonstration; independent validation on a near-collapse case remains pending.