Urban catalytic effect of opening of a multifunctional facility on stay behavior using GPS trajectory data: Quasi-experimental case study of “ONIKURU” in suburban city center

Suburban city centers are gradually declining due to the hollowing out of urban functions. Urban design strategies that seek to redirect stay behavior through a single catalytic project have therefore attracted increasing attention. However, there is limited empirical evidence on how the opening of a multifunctional facility—an intervention at the building scale—affects stay behavior in a suburban city. This study aims to clarify the impact of a new multifunctional facility on stay behavior using GPS trajectory data. The quasi-experimental case study was conducted using the high-resolution, empirical case of the Ibaraki City Cultural and Childcare Complex “ONIKURU.” This study used GPS trajectory data and applied propensity score matching and difference-in-differences to estimate the ATT among the stay group. Results show that opening ONIKURU significantly increased the frequency of weekly stays in the suburban city center among the stay group. Specifically, the ATT indicates an additional increase of approximately 0.471 [95% CI: 0.336, 0.607] times/week for the stay group relative to the non-stay group. However, spatial analysis revealed that ONIKURU's opening did not generate a uniform spillover effect throughout the suburban city center. Instead, it produced a spatially selective catalytic effect: while stay density increased near the facility and adjacent commercial areas, it concurrently decreased in another core area (near JR Ibaraki Station). This case quantifies the magnitude and spatial pattern of short-term stay reallocation following the opening of a multifunctional facility, informing debates on catalytic effects and providing a replicable evaluation approach. • Examine the effect of ONIKURU on stay behavior in a suburban city center • Used GPS trajectory data and conducted DID with propensity score matching • ATT among adopters: +0.471 [95%CI: 0.336 to 0.607] stays/week in ~6 weeks • Kernel density estimation (KDE) maps show spatially selective gains near ONIKURU • Demonstrate urban catalytic effects of multifunctional facility in the city center