Climate change effects and human pressure in coastal areas of naturalistic value: a multi-technique approach applied to Cala del Cefalo (Southern Italy)

Coastal dune systems represent dynamic and fragile environments that are increasingly threatened by the combined effects of sea-level rise, storm intensification, and anthropogenic disturbance. This study provides a comprehensive multi-technique assessment of coastal evolution at Cala del Cefalo (Southern Italy), a Mediterranean coastal sector part of the Natura 2000 network. Using a combination of Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis, photogrammetric surveys, and marine storm modeling, we evaluated morphological and ecological changes over 70 years since 1954, with particular focus on pre- and post-designation phases of the Site of Community Importance (SCI). show a maximum shoreline retreat of over 100 m and a maximum dune toe retreat of over 9 m. Differential NDVI analysis revealed significant vegetation degradation, especially in areas subject to more intense morphological retreat. The 1999 marine storm, modeled over current topography, demonstrated the increased vulnerability of the dune system to overtopping and backdune flooding. When adjusted for a projected sea-level rise of +0.71 m (IPCC SSP5-8.5), even moderate storm events are shown to pose a severe threat to the dune-vegetation interface and nearby infrastructure. The combined evidence highlights a self-reinforcing feedback loop between vegetation loss, sediment depletion, and shoreline retreat. Despite existing conservation measures, the system remains highly vulnerable and likely to reach ecological thresholds in the near future. The findings underline the urgent need for adaptive, ecologically informed coastal management strategies tailored to the evolving resilience limits of Mediterranean dune systems.