Dynamic Interactions Between Monetary Policy, Real Sector Confidence, Capacity Utilization, and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Türkiye

Recent financial fluctuations in the global economy, post-pandemic recovery processes, and geopolitical uncertainties have necessitated a reassessment of the effects of monetary policy on the real economy.In particular, changing monetary policy regimes since the 2008 global crisis have made the impact of financial conditions on the real sector more complex.Recent literature (IMF, 2024; OECD, 2025) emphasizes that the interactions between monetary policy and the real sector have regained importance in terms of ensuring economic stability.In Trkiye specifically, the trajectory over time of the effects of monetary policy decisions on production capacity, real sector expectations, and foreign trade has become a critical area of analysis for policymakers.Indicators such as the real sector confidence index and capacity