Seismic Assessment of the Tuzla Submarine Landslide in the Çınarcık Basin, Marmara Sea (Türkiye)

The Tuzla Submarine Landslide represents one of the most significant mass-wasting features associated with the active North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The failure surface geometry and sediment stratigraphy indicate the presence of a mechanically weak, saturated layer that may become unstable under strong seismic loading. This study presents a comprehensive geotechnical evaluation of the Tuzla Submarine Landslide. Based on regional sediment properties, the landslide was characterized and modeled with an estimated volume of 0.015 km3 and an average slope angle of 14°. The submarine landslide potential was investigated through re-analysis of seismic, geotechnical, and bathymetric datasets. Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations were conducted to model the seismic slope failure. Based on these analyses, the seismic slope displacements, stress distributions, and equivalent plastic strains were identified. The estimated landslide displacements under varying seismic acceleration scenarios corresponding to three major earthquakes ranged between 2.38 m and 4.12 m, depending on the triggering ground motion and slope stability conditions. These findings highlight that reactivation of the Tuzla submarine landslide, potentially triggered by a future large earthquake along the NAFZ, could pose a moderate landslide hazard to the coastal settlements bordering the Marmara Sea.