The Effects of Extreme Weather Events on the Socio-Climatic Vulnerability of Peruvian Agricultural Households: The Impact of the El Niño Phenomenon Between 2000–2018

This study analyzes the evolution of rural welfare vulnerability among agricultural households in Peru under the influence of extreme climate events, particularly those associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The research employs a Socio-Climatic Vulnerability Index (SCVI) constructed from microdata of the National Household Survey (ENAHO) covering the period 2000–2018. Using a longitudinal and territorial perspective, the study evaluates how climate shocks affect household welfare dynamics across Peru’s major geographic regions. The results show that extreme weather events systematically increase rural vulnerability in the years they occur, followed by partial recovery in subsequent periods, indicating temporary but recurrent welfare disruptions. Significant regional heterogeneity is observed. Coastal departments exhibit increasing vulnerability linked to hydro-meteorological exposure and rapid territorial expansion. The Andean region shows the highest and most volatile vulnerability levels due to geographic isolation, infrastructure constraints, and persistent socioeconomic inequalities. Amazonian regions present relatively lower initial vulnerability but display gradual increases associated with climate variability and limited connectivity. Decomposition of the SCVI reveals that improvements in demographic and educational conditions contribute positively to resilience, whereas the productive-economic dimension remains highly sensitive to climatic shocks. Although agricultural households demonstrate adaptive responses and coping strategies, structural gaps hinder full welfare recovery. These findings highlight the need for territorially differentiated climate adaptation policies that strengthen human capital, diversify rural livelihoods, and improve institutional support to enhance long-term resilience in vulnerable rural communities.