Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Older Adults’ Responsiveness to Cognitive Training Interventions: Data from the ACTIVE Study

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in personalizing cognitive training to enhance the likelihood of positive training effects at the individual level. Machine learning methods have proven suitable for this purpose due to their ability to generate predictions at the individual level. The aim of the study was to develop supervised machine learning models to predict near and far transfer of three cognitive training interventions (memory training, reasoning training and speed-of-processing training) based on baseline characteristics of elderly individuals including sociodemographic data, measures of cognitive and everyday functioning and depressive symptoms. In addition, near-transfer models were further utilized to predict individual responsiveness to all three types of cognitive training. Publicly available data from the ACTIVE study were used, which examined the effects of memory training, reasoning training and speed-of-processing training in healthy adults. Multiple supervised machine learning classification algorithms were applied to establish optimal predictive models for each type of cognitive training and transfer measure. Selected models for predicting near transfer were then used to estimate individual responsiveness to all three interventions. The results show selected models for all three types of cognitive training and both near- and far-transfer outcomes demonstrated better discriminative ability than chance based on all included features (AUC range 0.56-0.74), although models predicting far transfer demonstrated limited performance. Predicted responsiveness to cognitive training varied according to participant characteristics. Differences between model-predicted responders indicate that initially advantaged participants would have greater likelihood of benefiting from a broader range of interventions compared to initially disadvantaged ones, which would support magnification effects. The developed models need external validation, but have practical potential for selecting effective interventions tailored to individual characteristics, which could improve the future implementation of cognitive training programs.