The hole in the doughnut: Formalizing and testing a key model of degrowth

Abstract Degrowth scholars often claim that capitalism generates social and ecological imbalances, as captured by Kate Raworth's leading doughnut model. We formalize this model using social and environmental indices and measure imbalances using their coefficient of variation. We then test if capitalism, proxied by economic freedom, is associated with greater imbalances across multiple datasets, specifications, and functional forms. We find little support for the model's central prediction. If anything, the relationship often runs in the opposite direction. These results suggest that the doughnut model, minimally as here formalized, is not empirically supported and may provide a limited guide for policy.