An MMC-Based Fracture Failure Assessment Framework for In-Service X80 Pipelines with Circumferential Cracks Under Combined Loads

In marine renewable energy applications, offshore steel pipelines are subjected to complex combined loads during installation and operation, leading to significant plastic deformation and potential catastrophic fracture. To accurately characterize pipeline fracture failure, this study develops an enhanced failure assessment framework based on the Modified Mohr–Coulomb (MMC) criterion, integrating experimental parameter evaluation with numerical simulation for in-service offshore pipelines. The key parameters of the MMC model were determined directly from in-service pipeline samples to account for operational degradation. First, the plastic parameters were obtained by fitting the Swift hardening law to uniaxial tensile tests. Fracture parameters were then calibrated using a suite of five notched tensile specimens. Mesh sensitivity was analyzed using CT experiments to establish a suitable mesh size for the MMC-based damage model, enabling precise characterization of crack evolution from initiation to final tearing. Unlike prior applications, this framework is employed to investigate the response of X80 pipelines under combined tension, bending, and external pressure loading. Three-dimensional finite element models were developed to systematically analyze the stress–strain response, moment–curvature behavior, and evolution of hoop stress distribution. Results show that while the failure stress remains relatively stable under varying external pressure, both the critical strain and critical curvature increase markedly with pressure, by up to 20.9%. They also reveal a pronounced hierarchy in the influence of crack geometry on the failure behavior. Crack depth dominates failure sensitivity, affecting critical strain and pressure response far more than crack width or length. The reduction in failure stress for deep cracks under 12 MPa external pressure is over three times greater than for shallow cracks. In contrast, variations in crack length exert the most negligible influence on failure characteristics, with observed discrepancies of less than 6%. Overall, this research provides a high-precision failure prediction framework for in-service pipelines by quantitatively analyzing failure behavior under combined loads. It effectively characterizes failure evolution paths that differ from design conditions and dynamically tracks the residual fracture resistance after time-dependent degradation, offering a fundamental reference for the reliability assessment of pipelines in complex marine environments.