57. Expansion or Replenishing–Implications for the U.S. Cow Herd

Abstract The U.S. Beef industry finds itself in a position of uncertainty, the beef cow-herd population has reached record lows in recent years and beef prices have been at an all-time high. Effectively, supply and demand mechanisms within the industry, amongst other factors, have favored sending more offspring to terminal markets as feedlots compete for the low feeder calf supply, all of which has resulted in heifer placement rate in feedlots hovering around 38% according to recent USDA reports. Accordingly, heifer replacement percentage nationally was below 13% in July of 2025, a near record low, although cow slaughter rates have declined over 2025. Effectively, cow-calf operators have been retaining mature cows and sending more female offspring to market. While this has stabilized the cow-herd decline, it does bring into question whether we are truly undergoing herd expansion or if we are rather replenishing cow numbers while being more selective about retention decisions. The reality that the herd may be replenishing, and not simply expanding for expansions sake, brings into question how producers may need to adapt decision making frameworks to succeed over the next cattle cycle. In essence, beef cow quality over quantity may be the preference of current cow-calf producers. As with many variables of the current beef market, carcass sizes are at record highs and beef producers will need to continue to produce calves with high genetic potential for growth but still need to be cognizant of input costs for their cow herd. Over recent decades mature beef cow size has increased steadily going from 262 kg to 290.7 kg dressed weight from 2000 to 2024. Modern cows require increased resources to maintain in the form of greater quantity and quality pasture resources or more supplemental feed, and similarly modern heifers with greater mature body weights require more resources to develop. Recent advancements in genetics and breeding may also allow producers to take advantage of heterosis to produce a more profitable calf, regardless of cow body weight. However, feedback mechanisms from feeders to cow-calf producers will improve the speed by which producers modify their breeding programs. To make the right decisions for their operation, producers need more and easier access to data which informs what type of cow works best for their system.