A systems thinking approach to operationalizing integrated water resources management in Ethiopia through leverage points and feedback loops

Operationalizing Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in climate-vulnerable and water-insecure contexts is constrained by complex interactions among hydrological variability, infrastructural deficits, institutional capacity, and socioeconomic conditions. This study applies an integrated semi-quantitative systems framework to identify leverage points and dominant feedback loops that shape IWRM implementation in Ethiopia. This approach combines causal loop diagramming, eigenvector centrality, MICMAC influence-dependency analysis, and structural loop gain assessment to examine how the system structure governs behavior. Six leverage points, household income level, access to reliable water supply, governance effectiveness, economic water scarcity, food availability and access, and irrigation coverage, emerge as critical system connectors and strategic intervention nodes relevant to SDG 6.5 implementation. The results indicate that IWRM performance is driven by isolated sectoral action rather than by reinforcing feedback linking water access, livelihoods, food availability, and economic water scarcity, thus amplifying vulnerability to rainfall variability, limited storage capacity, and chronic underinvestment. The balancing feedback between governance effectiveness and infrastructure investment suggests a potential regulatory pathway to stabilize system performance, though its influence is constrained by institutional fragmentation and financial constraints. By explicitly linking system behavior to DG 6.5.1 (degree of IWRM implementation), this study demonstrates that effective IWRM operationalization requires coordinated interventions that simultaneously strengthen water infrastructure, governance capacity, and livelihood resilience. The proposed framework complements SDG monitoring by revealing the structural constraints and feedback mechanisms that must be addressed to achieve integrated, equitable, and climate-resilient water management in Ethiopia and other similar water-insecure countries.