Modeling Spatiotemporal Streamflow Patterns in the Missouri River Basin Under Future Climate Scenarios

Understanding the spatiotemporal streamflow patterns under future climate scenarios is critical for sustainable water resource management in large river basins. This study applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), forced by five downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 global climate models, to evaluate historical (2008–2024) and future (2025–2049) streamflow patterns in the Missouri River Basin in the continental United States. Model calibration and validation were satisfactory, with NSE > 0.5, KGE ≥ 0.5, R2 > 0.5, and PBIAS within ±25% at most USGS gauge stations. Future projections indicate spatially and temporally variable hydrological responses: The upper basin (Bismarck, North Dakota) is projected to experience lower flows across most percentiles and reduced extreme events, whereas the lower basin (Hermann, Missouri) shows decreased median flows but higher extremes. Recurrence interval analysis of 2-, 5-, 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flows suggests that 100-year flows may decline by 11% at Bismarck and increase by 37.4% at Hermann. These results highlight the importance of integrating percentile-based and extreme event streamflow analyses with hydrologic modeling for assessing the spatiotemporal streamflow patterns under future climate scenarios in large-scale basins. Quantitative insights into future streamflow variability and its implications for flood risk mitigation, water resources management, and adaptive strategies were gained for one of North America’s largest river systems.