Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Based on a TSPF-BiLSTM Model: A Case Study of Sangzhi County, Hunan Province

In karst mountainous areas where high-dimensional features coexist with extremely limited sample sizes, accurate landslide susceptibility mapping remains challenging. To address this issue, we propose an ensemble framework termed the Triple-Source Probabilistic Fusion Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network (TSPF-BiLSTM). The approach was tested in Sangzhi County, Hunan Province, by integrating three base learners—Random Forest (RF), LightGBM, and AdaBoost. Their raw outputs were first calibrated using five-fold Platt scaling to generate posterior probabilities on a unified scale. A bidirectional LSTM was then employed to perform deep nonlinear fusion of these cross-model probability features. Using a total of 618 landslide and 618 non-landslide samples (split into training and testing sets), the TSPF-BiLSTM model achieved a mean AUC of 0.9525 (±0.0115) under ten-fold cross-validation, outperforming not only the individual base learners but also standalone deep learning models (CNN and Transformer). The frequency ratio in the very high susceptibility zone reached 3.97, significantly exceeding all benchmark models and confirming its superior capability in high-risk area identification. Multi-model importance analysis identified NDVI, elevation, and annual rainfall as the dominant regional landslide predisposing factors. Within the specific ranges of NDVI 0–0.686, elevation 155–462 m, and annual rainfall 1273.6–1301 mm, landslide frequency ratios consistently exceeded 1.96. The proposed framework, with its probability-level fusion and embedded regularization mechanisms, effectively mitigated overfitting despite the small sample size, providing a robust technical solution for geological hazard risk identification and prevention in the data-scarce karst terrain of the Wuling Mountains.