Operational Resilience Under Carbon Constraints: A Socio-Technical Multi-Agentic Approach to Global Supply Chains

High-stakes logistics, defined as supply chains where delays, quality loss, or noncompliance have serious human, safety, financial, or geopolitical consequences, are a prominent case of a broader reality: global supply chains are safety-, cost-, and time-critical socio-technical systems where forecasting quality, vendor coordination, and operational decisions shape service levels and stakeholder welfare. At the same time, decarbonization pressures and the growing use of AI for planning and control introduce new risks and trade-offs across energy, computation, and physical logistics. We develop a multi-agent framework that models supply chain system-of-systems dynamics drawing on (1) supply chain decision functions (shipment planning, sourcing and vendor management), (2) national energy-transition conditions that determine grid carbon intensity, and (3) carbon-aware computation accounting for AI-enabled decision support. Methodologically, we combine predictive analytics, unsupervised segmentation, and a carbon-cost-of-intelligence layer in a scenario-based assessment of how national energy-transition profiles–from Norway to India–affect the intensity of AI compute carbon, meaning the carbon emissions generated by the hardware and data centers required to train and run AI models. We introduce the carbon-adjusted supply chain performance (CASP) metric that integrates physical transport carbon, cold-chain overhead where applicable, and AI compute carbon into a per-package-type performance measure. Our analysis yields three actionable outputs for systems engineering and environmental management: carbon, service, and cost trade-off frontiers; governance levers (sourcing portfolio rules, buffers, and compute policies); and system-level early-warning indicators for disruption amplification. This study implements a tool-augmented multi-agent system (orchestrator, risk, and sourcing agents) using AWS bedrock and strands agents, where LLM-based agents orchestrate deterministic analytical engines through structured tool interfaces with adaptive query generation. Theoretically, we extend previous systems-of-systems and sustainable supply chain findings by formalizing package-type-specific carbon–service frontiers and by embedding AI compute carbon into a socio-technical resilience framework. Practically, the CASP benchmark, governance lever analysis, and multi-agent implementation provide decision-makers with concrete tools to compare carriers, routes, and compute strategies across countries while making transparent the trade-offs between service reliability and total carbon.