Ecological drought patterns and drivers in Inner Mongolia using a modified temperature vegetation drought index

Abstract Inner Mongolia, situated in an arid and semiarid region, is characterized by a fragile ecological environment heavily impacted by frequent and intense droughts. The accurate assessment of ecological drought and identification of its drivers are crucial for drought disaster management in this area. In this study, we propose a novel ecological drought index, the kernel temperature vegetation drought index (kTVDI), which refines the traditional temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) by incorporating the kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) derived from MODIS data spanning from 2000 to 2022. We analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics as well as future trends of ecological drought during the growing season in Inner Mongolia using Theil–Sen trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall test, and the Hurst index. This research also explored the correlations between the kTVDI and meteorological variables, such as potential evapotranspiration (PET), temperature (TM), and precipitation (PRE), on an image‐by‐image basis through partial correlation analysis. Additionally, it examines the impact of human activities on ecological drought through residual analysis. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was applied to elucidate the pathways through which natural environmental elements and human activities influence ecological drought. Our findings indicate a general trend toward the amelioration of ecological drought during the growing season in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2022, with the highest incidence of breakpoints occurring in July. Spatially, the ecological drought conditions transitioned from mild wetness in the northeast to severe drought in the southwest. Temporal trend analysis indicated increased dryness in May, June, and August, whereas wetness trends were prominent in July, September, and October. Notably, the future spatial patterns of ecological drought may show reverse trends. Precipitation was negatively correlated with ecological drought across 89% of the region, whereas PET and TM were positively correlated in 42.2% and 51.5% of the area, respectively. Furthermore, human activities exacerbated ecological drought in western Inner Mongolia and mitigated it in the eastern regions. The SEM results emphasize that climatic conditions and human activities indirectly influence ecological drought through their impacts on the leaf area and productivity of vegetation.