New forms of foreign trade and county-level air pollution

Air pollution is a significant barrier to achieving SDG 3 (ensuring healthy lives and promoting well-being for all at all ages). As an emerging economic form, the new forms of foreign trade (NFFT) has the potential to effectively mitigate air pollution by optimizing resource allocation and promoting technological innovation. This paper, based on panel data from 1,786 counties in China spanning from 2000 to 2021, uses cross-border e-commerce pilot zones (CBECPZ) as a quasi-natural experiment for the NFFT. A multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model is employed to systematically examine the relationship between the NFFT and county-level air pollution. The results indicate that the NFFT significantly reduces county-level air pollution, and this effect remains stable over the long term. Furthermore, the NFFT indirectly lowers air pollution levels by fostering export and technological innovation. Under varying types and intensities of environmental regulations, the environmental effects of the NFFT demonstrate notable differences. In regions with low command-control regulation, high market incentive regulation, and low public participation in environmental regulation, the NFFT exerts a particularly significant suppressive effect on county-level air pollution. High market incentive regulations can maximize the environmental effect of the NFFT in contexts characterized by low command-control and low public participation regulations. However, when two or more types of environmental regulation are simultaneously strong, the environmental potential of the NFFT may be completely offset. This study highlights the diverse mechanisms through which the NFFT influences air pollution under different environmental regulatory configurations and underscores the importance of optimizing environmental regulation strategies to maximize the environmental benefits of emerging economic forms.