Spatiotemporal differentiation and dynamics simulation of China’s industrial soot and dust emissions

To address the challenge of balancing industrial development and environmental protection in China, we explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms, and emission reduction paths of industrial soot and dust emissions using an interdisciplinary methodological framework. Results show that national ISDE follows a trajectory of stable fluctuation–linear increase–fluctuating decrease–fluctuating increase–linear decrease, with the spatial pattern shifting from “high in the east, low in the west” to “national convergence + local targeted governance”. The ISDE centroid moves along a path of southward –northward –northwestward. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are core nodes in the inter-provincial ISDE correlation network, with strong linkages between eastern coastal provinces, economic hubs, and adjacent regions. The permanent population, secondary industry employment, crude oil consumption, and coal consumption are dominant drivers for most provinces, with heterogeneous factors across regions. Multi-scenario simulation for Shanxi indicates that the optimal path (Path 7) is high-speed GDP and population growth and controlling the low-speed development of industrial structure, industrial production demand, and energy consumption intensity.