Climate‐Driven Co‐Variability of Wheat ( <scp> <i>Triticum aestivum</i> </scp> ) Yields Across Provinces in China

ABSTRACT Although numerous studies have examined the influence of meteorological factors on wheat yields across China's principal producing regions, the differential sensitivities of these regions to distinct climatic drivers, the spatial heterogeneity in yield variability, and the systematic mechanisms by which large‐scale atmospheric circulation regulates regional climate and thereby indirectly affects wheat production remain insufficiently understood. Drawing upon provincial wheat yield records and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, this study finds that wheat yields in Anhui, Jiangsu and Henan, as well as in Gansu and Shanxi, exhibit consistently high correlations, revealing pronounced characteristics of co‐variability. Precipitation, surface temperature and soil moisture are the key meteorological factors driving this co‐variability, among which precipitation and temperature exert particularly strong influences in these provinces. Further analyses reveal that precipitation variability in Anhui–Jiangsu–Henan is strongly modulated by the ‘Europe–China (EC) teleconnection pattern’, whereby meridional propagation of mid‐latitude Rossby wave trains enhances regional rainfall, favouring water availability during the critical stem‐elongation to booting stages of wheat. By contrast, precipitation variability in Gansu–Shanxi is influenced by shifts in the ‘Central Asia–Northeast Dipole pattern (CAN‐DP)’. In terms of surface temperature, both regions exhibit a common ‘East Asia Intermediate–High Latitude Dipole Pattern (EAI‐DP)’, which is particularly pronounced in winter and spring, reflecting the dominant control of high‐latitude trough–ridge systems on East Asian cold‐air trajectories.