Dynamics of ecosystem service values under land cover change in the Dinder semi-arid biosphere reserve, Sudan

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes strongly influence ecosystem service values (ESV), yet their dynamics in semi-arid biosphere reserves remain underexplored. This study quantifies LULC dynamics and their associated ESV changes in the Dinder Biosphere Reserve (DBR), a unique protected area in Sudan, from 1990 to 2034 using multi-temporal satellite imagery and scenario-based modeling. Findings show that dense tree cover declined by 48.20% (1990–2000), then partially recovered by 2014, but is projected to decrease again by 2034. Grasslands and sparse trees exhibited alternating expansion and contraction. While wetlands and water bodies initially declined, they are expected to expand in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. Total ESV declined by 26.67% (US$ 7.29–5.34 billion). Sensitivity analysis shows that water bodies (CS = 0.53) and dense trees (CS = 0.44) are leading contributors to the total ESV. These results underscore the need for adaptive, spatially targeted management to sustain ecosystem functions in semi-arid biosphere reserves. • In a semi-arid biosphere reserve, LULC transitions caused a 26.7% decline in total ecosystem service value. • Water bodies and forests showed the strongest influence on total ESV. • Trade-offs emerged between terrestrial zand aquatic ecosystem services. • Predictive modeling revealed continued degradation risks by 2034. • Results support semi-arid specific restoration and adaptive land use planning.