Pension System Resilience Under Extreme Demographic Shock: Lessons from the Ukrainian Case

Population ageing, declining fertility, and falling real interest rates have widened the global pension gap and increased fiscal pressure on pay-as-you-go systems worldwide. These structural challenges are compounded in Ukraine by an extreme demographic shock caused by war, large-scale migration, excess mortality, and a sharp contraction in GDP. This study evaluates the financial resilience and long-term sustainability of the Ukrainian pension system over 2015–2023 and assesses alternative development trajectories under heightened uncertainty. The methodology integrates demographic analysis with financial sustainability assessment and risk management approaches. A composite Sustainability Index is constructed from nine sub-indices that capture the structural, demographic, and economic dimensions of pension system performance. Scenario modelling is applied to simulate three reform pathways: structural transformation through expansion of the funded pillar, demographic adjustments, and accelerated economic recovery. The findings suggest that structural diversification of the pension system, combined with labour market formalisation and macroeconomic stabilisation, represents the most effective strategy for strengthening resilience. The study contributes to the literature on pension sustainability by conceptualising demographic shock as a systemic risk factor and by positioning pension reform within a broader financial risk management framework. Policy implications extend beyond Ukraine to other ageing economies exposed to turbulence.