Unlocking solutions to China’s soybean crisis: optimizing cropping systems and dietary structures

Feed grain security is a cornerstone of China’s food security. However, the country’s heavy reliance on soybean imports and the associated external environmental impacts have long posed significant concerns. This study explores China’s potential for soybean self-sufficiency by optimizing cropping systems across 1.7 million grids and adjusting dietary structure from both production and consumption perspectives. By developing a cropping system optimization model, the study revealed that even with the full utilization of existing cultivated land, soybean self-sufficiency can increase only from 14.2% to 77.4%. Achieving full self-sufficiency would require a major shift toward a more plant-based diet. The increased domestic production of soybean shifts the environmental footprint from soybean-exporting countries to China, causing a net increase, although limited, in part of the global environmental footprint. This study emphasizes China’s potential for soybean self-sufficiency, however, substantial efforts must be made to adjust crop production patterns and dietary structure to achieve this challenging goal.