Future scenarios for British biodiversity under climate and land-use change
Projections of biodiversity futures are needed to translate global policies into national action. We use dissimilarity modelling to project climate change scenarios for 1002 plant, 56 butterfly, and 219 bird species across Great Britain up to 2080. Under all scenarios we find extensive community reorganisation, with the disappearance of current bioclimates and emergence of novel ones. We also explore impacts of combined climate and land-use change, finding that even optimistic scenarios could see accumulating extinction debts. Scenarios featuring reduced emissions and a more sustainable society could bend the curve of loss, reducing species heading for extinction by 32% for plants, 14% for butterflies, and 20% for birds. Scenarios differ in impact between groups, with plants showing the most severe responses to environmental change. Overall, we show that actions taken during the next 20 years are crucial to mitigate the worst effects of climate and land-use change for biodiversity in Britain.
Authors
- Colin Harrower (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5070-5293)
- Steven M. White (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3192-9969)
- Paula A. Harrison (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9873-3338)
- Dario Massimino (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5855-4060)
- James G. Rodger (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9878-3247)
- Nick J. B. Isaac
- Emma Robinson
- James M. Bullock
- Victoria J. Burton
- Rob Cooke
- Calum Brown
- Cang Hui
- Richard Fox
- Rob Dunford-Brown
- Chris Huntingford
Institutions
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE)
- Natural History Museum (GB)
- Butterfly Conservation (GB)
- Stellenbosch University (ZA)
- Sol Plaatje University (ZA)
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB)
- NHS Highland (GB)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of the Highlands and Islands (GB)
- British Trust for Ornithology (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-03-31
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70064-4
- Primary Topic
- Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- European Commission
- Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland
- Helmholtz Association
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology