Avocado Crop Competitiveness and Sustainability Index (ICSCA): Comprehensive Assessment in Five Mexican States (2014–2024)

The rapid growth of avocado production in Mexico has intensified concerns about balancing economic competitiveness with environmental sustainability, especially regarding water use and production intensification. This study introduces the Integrated Competitiveness and Sustainability Composite Index for Avocado (ICSCA), a multidimensional indicator that evaluates the structural performance of avocado production systems across Mexican states. The index combines environmental efficiency, economic productivity, and socio-productive stability, using state level data from 2014–2024. The ICSCA was calculated and examined through principal component analysis, regression models, and spatial visualization. Results show strong heterogeneity among producing regions. States like Michoacan and Jalisco achieve high productivity and economic output but exert significant pressure on water resources, while others maintain more balanced sustainability profiles with moderate productivity; furthermore, spatial patterns reveal clear regional gradients in sustainability performance. Robust tests, including out of sample temporal validation, expanding window validation, and sliding window analysis, demonstrate high predictive consistency across analysis periods. Overall, the ICSCA provides a robust tool for assessing the interactions between productivity, environmental efficiency, and social structural stability, supporting evidence-based policy design and regional planning for more sustainable avocado production.