Bounce Back or Breakdown? Assessing Territorial Vulnerability to Repeated Floods Across European NUTS-3 Regions

Abstract Climate-related disasters are attracting increasing global concern due to their severe impacts on communities, infrastructure and economies. The latest IPCC reports confirm that human-induced climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of such extreme events. At the same time, population growth and economic development further increase vulnerability, while mitigation efforts remain insufficient. Using the Joint Research Centre’s (JRC) socio-economic vulnerability indicator and HANZE floods database for the period 2005–2020, this study investigates how repeated and consecutive climate-related hazards influence socio-economic vulnerability at the NUTS-3 level across European countries. Our findings indicate that while the first flood event is linked to increased overall vulnerability across all sub-dimensions, the third flood is associated with a decline in overall, economic and environmental vulnerability. The social dimension displays particularly high sensitivity, with no significant effects observed after the third event. Moreover, shorter intervals between floods reveal stronger effects and no signs of adaptation.