ESG Performance and the Phase-Dependent Resilience of Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Chinese Multinationals

Chinese multinational enterprises, as the most active emerging-market investors, face mounting challenges in sustaining outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) under increasingly volatile global environments, yet how ESG performance shapes firms’ capacity to withstand and recover from external shocks remains poorly understood. This study investigates whether and how ESG performance enhances the OFDI resilience of Chinese multinational enterprises across the resistance phase and the recovery phase. We hypothesize that ESG performance enhances OFDI resilience through phase-specific mechanisms: in the resistance phase, ESG functions as a static resource buffer grounded in the resource-based view, while in the recovery phase, it operates as a dynamic reconfiguration mechanism consistent with the dynamic capabilities view. Using a panel dataset of 19,691 firm-year observations from Chinese A-share listed firms spanning 2008 to 2024, we employ a fixed-effects panel model to test these hypotheses. The results show that ESG performance significantly enhances OFDI resilience in both phases, and this conclusion holds after robustness and endogeneity tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that green innovation mediates the effect in both the resistance and recovery phases, while supply chain resilience and investment efficiency serve as additional mediating channels exclusively in the resistance phase. By introducing a phase-dependent perspective and highlighting ESG’s distinct roles across shock stages, this study provides practical guidance for emerging-market multinational enterprises on how to leverage ESG performance to build sustainable OFDI resilience in volatile global environments.