LAML-Pro: Joint Maximum Likelihood Inference of Cell Genotypes and Cell Lineage Trees

Motivation: Recent dynamic lineage tracing technologies use genome editing to induce heritable mutations, or edits, that accumulate across successive cell divisions. These edits are measured using single-cell sequencing or imaging, providing data to reconstruct cell lineages at single-cell resolution. Current computational approaches to infer cell lineage trees, or phylogenies, from these data perform two separate steps: (1) Identify each cell's edits (genotype) from the raw sequencing or imaging data; (2) Infer a cell lineage tree from the cell genotypes. However, genotyping cells is an inexact process and genotype errors can yield an inaccurate lineage tree. For example, using fluorescence based-imaging to measure edits results in a high fraction (≈ 25-50%) of uncertain or erroneous genotypes. Results: We introduce Lineage Analysis via Maximum Likelihood with PRobabilistic Observations (LAML-Pro), an algorithm that jointly infers cell genotypes and a cell lineage tree. LAML-Pro is based on the Probabilistic Mixed-type Missing Observation (PMMO) model, which we derive to describe both the genome editing and genotype observation processes. LAML-Pro constructs lineage trees from thousands of cells in under an hour by leveraging the sparsity of transitions under the PMMO model. On simulated data, we demonstrate that LAML-Pro corrects genotype errors and infers substantially more accurate trees than existing methods which are vulnerable to genotype errors. Applied to data from two recent imaging-based lineage tracing systems, LAML-Pro reduces genotype errors by 5-fold and produces more spatially coherent lineage trees compared to existing methods. Availability and Implementation: LAML-Pro is freely available at: github.com/raphael-group/LAML-Pro.