Mapping soil pH baselines, trends, and time-to-critical crop risk using harmonized legacy datasets: A large-scale assessment

) of 0.64-0.66 from 1980 to 2025. TTC analysis indicated that approximately 59.0% (62.91 M ha) of U.S. croplands were projected to remain within safe pH thresholds for more than 20 years. However, nearly one-third of croplands (33.8%, 35.99 M ha) were projected to reach critical pH conditions within 0-5 years, indicating an urgent need for region-specific soil management. Acid-sensitive crops such as soybeans and peanuts were most vulnerable in acidic soils, while barley, oats, and canola faced strong alkalinity constraints. Spatially, alkalinity risks were widespread in the western and Midwest and Southwest regions, whereas acidity risks dominated in the Midwest, Southeast, and northern U.S. The study results demonstrated that soil pH risk modeling and assessment of TTC is an effective framework for quantifying temporal risks and identifying near-term hotspots, thereby guiding targeted management, land-use planning, and policy interventions.