Tracing carbon emissions across the upstream supply-to-final demand chain for China’s construction industry

Abstract Exploring the carbon emission characteristics and transmission mechanisms of China’s construction industry is critical to advancing the sector’s low-carbon transition. However, existing research is lacking in systematic analysis of the carbon emissions of segmented construction sub-sectors from both production and consumption perspectives, as well as in in-depth tracing of inter-sectoral carbon emission transmission along the upstream supply-to-final demand chain. We developed an Environmentally Extended Input–Output (EEIO) model using multi-source data, including CO 2 environmental satellite accounts, input–output tables and identified key emission-driven sectors through a carbon emission-value added quadrant analysis. The results show that: (1) there is a significant gap between production-based and consumption-based emissions—with total consumption-based carbon emissions (CCE) reaching 5000.46 Mt CO 2 , approximately 36 times the production-based carbon emissions (PCE) of 140.18 Mt CO 2 . Residential Building and Railway & Road Engineering are core sub-sectors, accounting for 45.89% and 24.22% of total CCE, and 40.74% and 22.98% of total PCE respectively; (2) over 97.20% of CCE originate from embodied emissions in upstream high-carbon sectors such as ferrous metal smelting (41.95%) and chemical raw material manufacturing (19.04%), and the transmission of CCE to final demand is driven by the rigid demand of large-scale construction projects (37.36%); (3) Quadrant analysis pinpoints high-carbon, low-value-added sectors in upstream supply and final demand. We conclude by proposing targeted policy implications for construction sub-sectors, upstream supply chains and final demand sectors, emphasizing cross-sectoral collaborative governance to accelerate the low-carbon transition of the construction industry. Graphical Abstract