Leveraging Atmospheric Information Across Scales for Local Temperature Forecasting Using a Novel Multi‐Scale Perception Network

Abstract Regional weather forecasting systems typically depend on boundary conditions from global models to represent large‐scale atmospheric processes, while such coupling increases complexity and hinders end‐to‐end optimization for specific target locations. Here, we propose the Multi‐scale Perception Network (MPN), a unified deep learning model that explicitly processes atmospheric information across multiple spatial scales for air temperature ( T a ) forecasting. Using Hong Kong as a test case, MPN outperforms state‐of‐the‐art transformer‐based deep learning models and an operational physics‐based model, achieving up to 16% and 21% reductions in root mean squared error on 1–6 hr forecast horizons, respectively. Scale‐sensitivity experiments demonstrate that predictor domains of about 2,000 km generally provide sufficient atmospheric context for 1‐day forecasts, with improvements concentrated primarily in cold surge events, where broader‐scale information captures approaching frontal systems. Finally, our evaluation highlights distinct lead‐time‐dependent performance profiles and identifies forecast barriers linked to diurnal phase transitions, pointing to fundamental challenges and opportunities for improving short‐range regional forecasts.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research Machine Learning and Computation
Published
2026-04-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jh001083
Primary Topic
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Leveraging Atmospheric Information Across Scales for Local Temperature Forecasting Using a Novel Multi‐Scale Perception Network

Jiachuan Yang, Yilin Chen
Journal of Geophysical Research Machine Learning and Computation
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
article

Leveraging Atmospheric Information Across Scales for Local Temperature Forecasting Using a Novel Multi‐Scale Perception Network

Jiachuan Yang, Yilin Chen
article en

Abstract

Abstract Regional weather forecasting systems typically depend on boundary conditions from global models to represent large‐scale atmospheric processes, while such coupling increases complexity and hinders end‐to‐end optimization for specific target locations. Here, we propose the Multi‐scale Perception Network (MPN), a unified deep learning model that explicitly processes atmospheric information across multiple spatial scales for air temperature ( T a ) forecasting. Using Hong Kong as a test case, MPN outperforms state‐of‐the‐art transformer‐based deep learning models and an operational physics‐based model, achieving up to 16% and 21% reductions in root mean squared error on 1–6 hr forecast horizons, respectively. Scale‐sensitivity experiments demonstrate that predictor domains of about 2,000 km generally provide sufficient atmospheric context for 1‐day forecasts, with improvements concentrated primarily in cold surge events, where broader‐scale information captures approaching frontal systems. Finally, our evaluation highlights distinct lead‐time‐dependent performance profiles and identifies forecast barriers linked to diurnal phase transitions, pointing to fundamental challenges and opportunities for improving short‐range regional forecasts.

Journal of Geophysical Research Machine Learning and ComputationVol. 3(2)
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HK), University of Hong Kong (HK)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 25%
Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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Leveraging Atmospheric Information Across Scales for Local Temperature Forecasting Using a Novel Multi‐Scale Perception Network — Jiachuan Yang, Yilin Chen · Journal of Geophysical Research Machine Learning and Computation (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS