Optimizing Rice Production Zones for Strengthening Local Food Security: Evidence from Grobogan District, Indonesia

Indonesia’s widening gap between rice demand and supply underscores an urgent need to pinpoint areas where sustainable intensification can have the most significant impact. This study integrates geospatial analysis with a multi‑criteria decision framework to rank the 19 sub‑districts of Grobogan District, Central Java, against economic (Location Quotient and Supportability Score), biophysical (land‑suitability and agro‑ecological parameters), and food‑carrying‑capacity (Supportability Index) indicators. Normalised datasets from field surveys, official statistics, and satellite imagery were weighted, overlaid in a GIS environment, and synthesised into composite sustainability scores. The analysis shows marked spatial contrasts: Godong, Penawangan, and Gubug emerge as highly suitable, surplus‑producing zones, combining strong comparative advantage (LQ > 1), land carrying‑capacity surpluses (Index ≥ 1.3), and “S1” ecological suitability classes; by contrast, Kedungjati, Klambu, and Brati exhibit simultaneous deficits in comparative advantage, carrying capacity, and environmental fitness. These findings offer a transparent evidence base for directing infrastructure funding, extension services, and climate‑smart technologies to priority zones while tailoring conservation or diversification strategies for less‑favoured areas. The integrative framework demonstrated here can be replicated to support commodity zoning and food‑security planning in other regions confronting similar sustainability trade‑offs.