Energy Emissions and Cost Impacts of Autonomous Battery Electric Vehicles in Riyadh

Autonomous battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have the potential to reshape urban mobility systems, yet their sustainability impacts remain underexplored in Gulf-region cities where traffic dynamics, land-use structures, and environmental conditions differ substantially from Western contexts. This study introduces a Saudi-specific assessment framework that integrates monetised externalities with empirically calibrated traffic dynamics to evaluate how automation influences safety, congestion, land use, emissions, and noise. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first Riyadh-calibrated monetised external-cost evaluation of autonomous BEVs that couples externality valuation with simulation-validated time-varying traffic dynamics (SAR per vkm and SAR per pkm), enabling realistic peak-period sustainability assessment. The framework’s key contribution is linking external-cost modelling with spatiotemporal traffic behaviour derived from Riyadh’s 2023 mobility patterns, providing a more realistic basis for sustainability evaluation. Using national datasets from transport, energy, and statistical authorities, the model estimates substantial reductions in external costs when transitioning from human-driven to autonomous BEVs, driven primarily by lower crash exposure and smoother traffic flow. To validate these findings under real operating conditions, a dynamic analysis incorporating hourly and seasonal traffic variability was developed, revealing that automation delivers its strongest improvements during peak-demand periods where congestion externalities are highest. The integrated results demonstrate the relevance of autonomous BEVs for dense rapidly growing Saudi cities and provide actionable insights for future mobility planning. The study highlights the policy importance of coordinated transport, land-use, and energy strategies to ensure that automation contributes meaningfully to national sustainability goals under Vision 2030.