Unveiling the impacts of on-demand transit service on ridership and its growth

On-demand transit has demonstrated promising potential to tackle challenges related to extended wait times, connectivity gaps, and operational inefficiencies, particularly in low-density urban environments. From the passengers’ perspectives, the service has the potential to improve accessibility with reduced travel times and transfers, whereas transit agencies can benefit from the opportunity of improvement in ridership and operations. As such, this study proposes a framework to analyze the impacts of on-demand transit on ridership and its trend leveraging a combination of transit activities, land use and operation data. The case study is conducted with a multi-year pilot program of on-demand transit service operated in the City of Regina, Canada considering nighttime services and low-demand transit stops. The impacts of on-demand transit on ridership at stop level as well as the cross-year growth are assessed with difference-in-difference methods for both the overall transit network and different land use zones including residential, commercial and public service areas. Density and distance of various amenities within the transit stops are also considered such as food, school and health amenities. Results provide evidence of positive relationships between ridership and on-demand transit service on the entire transit network, while the benefits vary in different land use zones. Results also show increasing impacts of the service on ridership across years which contribute to the ridership growth. The developed method and findings can provide planning and policy references for both the existing service evaluation and long-term development for on-demand transit.